Trump’s Second Stage Has Begun

I have long argued that Donald Trump would first use Vladimir Putin — and then turn against him. That moment has now arrived.

In the first stage, Trump deliberately played the card of “special relations” with Putin. He appeared respectful, conciliatory, even willing to “yield.” In reality, this was a classic negotiating ploy: the performance of sympathy toward the Kremlin frightened Europe and Ukraine far more than any direct threat.

The outcome was extraordinarily favorable for Washington.

• Europeans, worried about an American-Russian alignment, hurried to raise defense spending and to make concessions on trade and tariffs.

• Ukraine, fearful of being left one-on-one with Russia, complied with U.S. demands on critical matters, from resources to political alignment.

• The United States gained access to rare earths and other strategically sensitive commodities.

In short, by ostentatiously cultivating closeness with Putin, Trump secured everything he needed from allies and partners. From Putin himself, he expected nothing: Moscow’s role was purely instrumental.

Now that Europe and Ukraine have delivered, the need for “friendship” has vanished. The tool has served its purpose, and it is time for a new lever. Trump has pivoted — and begun saying precisely the opposite things.

Russia, once invoked as a mighty power, is now dismissed as a “paper tiger” and a “colossus with feet of clay.” Ukraine, he now declares, “can regain all of its territory — and perhaps even go further.”

This is no longer bluff intended to wring out concessions. It is a real change in Putin’s place within America’s strategic playbook: from useful scarecrow to direct target of pressure.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed this shift in an interview with Axios. He said he had Trump’s backing for strikes on Russian targets — energy infrastructure and defense plants. He went further, warning Kremlin officials that they had better “know where their bomb shelters are.” Such rhetoric would not have been uttered without confidence in a new U.S. stance.

Still, Zelensky’s language should be understood not as setting a new line, but as cementing it. He fears Trump’s unpredictability and therefore voices the maximum in order to guarantee at least the minimum.

For the United States, the implications are stark. Trump has shown that Putin is no longer a partner to be courted but a rival to be pressured. Europe has already paid more, Ukraine has already yielded more, and now Russia itself is the target. Whether one applauds or fears this shift, it marks a turning point: the “special relationship” was never more than theater, and the stage has now been reset for a far more dangerous act.